Vote Splitting on the left (en francais)

May 10, 2005

Harper's hidden foe

Layton's NDP could make gains in the West at the Conservatives' expense

An interesting article from Macleans Magazine.

While the article focuses on how Layton can be expected to make gains at the Conservatives expense, it fails to look at the flip side. As more time goes by it become increasingly difficult for Paul Martin and Jack Layton to pound on the 'scary conservative' and 'hidden agenda' lines. Paul Martin managed to squeak a minority by scaring NDP swing votes, specifically in Ontario. Many ridings in Ontario where Conservatives came second or third can change quite quickly if you take a strengthened NDP into account.

Barrie is one good example:
Aileen Carroll LIB 21233 42.66%
Patrick Brown CON 19938 40.06%
Peter Bursztyn NDP 5312 10.67%
Erich Jacoby-Hawkins GRN 3288 6.61%

Take 2 to 3 thousand 'scared' NDP supporters off the Liberal total.

Brant:

Lloyd St. Amand LIB 20455 38.05%
Greg Martin CON 17792 33.1%
Lynn Bowering NDP 11826 22%
Helen-Anne Embry GRN 2738 5.09%
Barra L. Gots CHP 570 1.06%
John C. Turmel IND 373 0.69%

Kitchener-Conestoga:
Lynn Myers LIB 17819 42.29%
Frank Luellau CON 14903 35.3%
Len Carter NDP 6623 15.72%
Kris Stapleton GRN 2793 6.62%

Kitchener-Centre
Karen Redman LIB 21264 47.13%
Thomas Ichim CON 12412 27.51%
Richard Walsh-Bowers NDP 8717 19.32%
Karol Vesely GRN 2450 5.43%
Mark Corbiere IND 277 0.61%

Why include this one? Take away the couple thousand NDP votes that went Liberal, and take away the Conservatives who voted Liberal because they just can't stomach the NDP. A good candidate (which we have) and good organization can win a riding like this.

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell:
Don Boudria LIB 23921 47.86%
Alain Lalonde CON 18729 37.47%
Martin Cauvier NDP 4238 8.48%
Roy Fjarlie GRN 2634 5.27%
Tim Bloedow CHP 464 0.93%

London-Fanshaw:
Pat O'Brien LIB 15664 38.08%
Irene Mathyssen NDP 12511 30.41%
John Mazzilli CON 10811 26.27%
Ed Moore GRN 1634 3.97%
Derrall Bellaire PCP 453 1.08%
Cameron Switzer ML 65 0.15%

Very winnable for a Conservative with the Liberals and NDP splitting the vote.

There are many more examples. There is a distinct advantage to being the only party on the right of the spectrum. It certainly flies in the face of those who argue the party needs to move more to the centre to appeal to people.

One other factor that many fail to account for. At the beginning of the last election , the CPC was hardly six months old, and Stephen Harper had just begun as leader. The next election will see a very different team.

Making sweeping generalizations based on polls is always a dangerous game to play. We have 308 distinctly different ridings, and each one needs to be examined in it's own right.

Just my 2 cents.

One person - one vote at a time!